Polymarket Signal Suite

SI-BOT-POLY-SUITE

Four read-only tools for Polymarket prediction markets: a live signal scanner, an executable-edge screener (real yield and arbitrage, not the mid-price illusion), an EV/Kelly sizing calculator, and a resolution tracker that scores whether your calls were actually good.

$91 day

$2530 days

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Specification

Market: Polymarket — all active prediction markets
Language: Python 3.9+
Runs on: Your machine — Linux, macOS, or Windows
Needs: Nothing — no API keys, no wallet, public endpoints only
Trades: No — every tool is read-only; you place any trade yourself

What it actually does

main.py continuously scans all active markets and surfaces momentum, volume spikes, whale entries/exits, and sentiment divergence.
screener.py ranks what's actually executable: near-certain yield (buying the favored side at the real ask, gated on fillable order-book depth) and true arbitrage (negRisk event legs whose asks sum under 1.0 — the real ask-sum, not the mid-price illusion that makes naive YES+NO math look like free money).
edge.py takes your own probability estimate for one bet and computes expected value plus quarter-Kelly position sizing — and tells you to skip when the market is already efficiently priced.
tracker.py logs positions and checks them against how the market actually resolved via the Gamma API, reporting realized P&L, win rate, and a calibration (Brier) score — whether your judgment is genuinely better than the market's price, not just a story you tell yourself.

The settings that decide your risk

Setting	What it does
`--min-volume / --min-liquidity / --min-score`	scanner.py: filters for what counts as a surfaced opportunity
`--mode / --bankroll / --arb-edge`	screener.py: yield, arb, or both; account size for sizing; minimum arbitrage edge to flag
`--est / --kelly-frac`	edge.py: your probability estimate and how conservative the Kelly sizing should be (default quarter-Kelly)
`--add`	tracker.py: log a bet (market, side, entry price, stake, your estimate) for later scoring

Credentials and safety

None. Every tool reads Polymarket's public Gamma and CLOB APIs — no wallet, no API key, no account of any kind beyond the rental licence. This reads Polymarket's original public market data, not the newer CFTC-regulated Polymarket US platform, which has a separate API requiring your own KYC'd account.

Specific risk for this bot

This suite never places a trade — every tool is read-only, and any position sizing or EV number is only as sound as the probability estimate you feed it. "Near-certain" in the yield screener is a priced probability, not a guarantee; markets flagged at 95%+ still lose sometimes, because that is exactly what a 95% price means.

It can lose money, including all of the amount you fund it with. There is no published track record and no guarantee of profit. Start small.

Getting it running

pip install -r requirements.txt
cp .env.sample .env          # BOT_LICENSE
export $(grep -v '^#' .env | xargs)
python main.py                # or screener.py / edge.py / tracker.py

Four independent entry points, one licence. Nothing to configure beyond the licence — every price and resolution comes straight from Polymarket's public API.

Set BOT_LICENSE to the licence string you received. The bot verifies it at startup against https://saylorinnovations.com/api/license/verify and will not run without a valid one.